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"For anyone that is a substantial consumer or producer of energy, or for any investment manager who wants an industry insider's take on the market, Andy's advice is indispensable."

-- Aubrey K. McClendon, CEO Chesapeake Energy Corporation

 

"One of the few natural gas analysts to truly understand the rapidly changing dynamics of the North American natural gas markets is Andy Weissman....Weissman's attention to the genuine supply and demand fundamentals has enabled him to become one of the world's best observers of natural gas as it faces unparalleled challenges."

-- Matthew R. Simmons, author "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy."

 

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You are Cordially Invited to
The Energy Business Watch Climate & Hurricane Forum

Energy experts and world renowned weather scientists discuss recent major atmospheric developments that could profoundly impact energy markets during this summer and the remainder of 2008.

Thursday, June 26, 2008
3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. in the afternoon.

Marriott Marquis – Times Square
1535 Broadway
New York City, New York 10036

Click Here to R.S.V.P.

Space is limited. We expect this event to be oversubscribed. Preference will be given to those who register early.

In the past 30 days, far-reaching changes have occurred in the atmosphere not seen in almost 70 years that could have profound consequences for U.S. and global energy markets. To help better understand these developments and assess their potential impact over the next 6 to 9 months, Energy Business Watch (EBW) is bringing to New York City for the first time for a special, 3-hour discussion with three of the top weather scientists in the world – Dr. Roland Madden (whose pioneering work led to the discovery of the Madden-Julian Oscillation), Harry Van Loon (one of the foremost experts in the world on El Nino/La Nina events) and Dr. William Gray (perhaps the best known expert in the country on hurricanes).

This all-star trio of renowned weather scientists will be joined on the program by EBW’s nationally-recognized Publisher, Andy Weissman, and EBW’s Chief Meteorologist, Dave Melita – who has demonstrated repeatedly a unique capability to accurately predict major weather trends on an extended range basis.

The program will provide critical insights regarding:

  • The likelihood of hotter-than-normal weather in July and August of this year
  • The potential for significantly greater-than-normal hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico
  • Recent Changes to La Nina Signal and the Prospect for a Transition to El Nino
  • The potential for much milder-than-normal weather in the winter of 2008/2009

In addition to a timely discussion on energy markets, atmospheric analyses presented at this forum will focus on an almost unprecedented sequence of major changes that have occurred to the manner in which the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere over all of the Northern Hemisphere interact. Long range meteorologists throughout the world have been very recently confounded by the great magnitude of these changes, and only a few are beginning to understand the ramifications and revising their outlooks.

These atmospheric changes are so severe that our panel believes we are clearly in the midst of a fundamental global climate change that will also have significant implications to the weather impact of man-made global warming, and forever change the way energy markets behave.

Brief biographies of the forum members are listed below. The views presented by the guest panel represent their individual scientific assessment and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the organizations for which they conduct research.

The Energy Business Watch Team Bios

Andy Weissman is an expert on the U.S. and global oil and natural gas, electricity and coal markets, commodities trading and pricing, electric utility industry restructuring, regulatory policy, innovative deal structuring, Clean Air Act issues, power supply planning and the emerging technologies needed to provide alternative sources of energy. Andy also helped to pioneer the market for trading emissions credits in the U.S., negotiating most of the early, path-breaking deals. is a nationally recognized expert on the natural gas, electric power and coal industries. He has provided strategic advice to scores of major energy companies and financial institutions during his 30-year career as a lawyer, consultant and corporate advisor in the energy industry. In a pivotal series of articles and interviews in early 2002 (when the spot market price of natural gas was $2.25/mmBtu), Andy was among the first to warn of the emerging natural gas crisis and to predict that oil would reach $65 per barrel. As a result of this work, Andy has became recognized as an expert on the imbalance between the supply and demand for oil and natural gas markets and its likely impact on fuels markets and market participants over the remainder of this decade. He continues to provide groundbreaking research and insights into the natural gas, oil, coal and electric power markets. Andy is Founder and Chairman of Energy Ventures Group, L.L.C., an investment management and consulting firm based in Washington, where he first published Energy Business Watch, his widely followed energy research and analysis service.

Dave Melita, Chief Meteorologist of Energy Business Watch, has become nationally recognized for his unprecedented accuracy in mid-range and long-term weather forecasting. He is a meteorologist who has held public and private sector positions dealing with atmospheric research and operational forecasting. During the past 13 years he has prepared meteorological newsletters designed specifically for the energy industry. His newsletters that provide commentary on temperature and precipitation patterns out to 90 days are designed to provide straightforward analysis of the atmospheric pattern and computer model accuracy, with an emphasis on identifying errors in either model or NWS forecasts that may be influencing energy markets. The long range forecasts feature detailed assessment of major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to assess the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying. His long range winter and summer forecasts have consistently out performed NWS predictions.

Climate Scientist Bios
Dr. Roland Madden, Senior Scientist (retired) Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Dr. Madden, co-discovered an important phenomenon related to El Nino, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), so named by the scientific community in honor of his contribution. In 1972 his classic paper was published describing this dominant pattern of tropical variability that occurs on time scales of 40 - 50 days. Dr. Madden's subsequent research includes the dynamics and predictability of this phenomenon, and its correlation with global patterns and weather processes outside the tropics.

Harry Van Loon. University of Copenhagen, MIT, University of South Africa. Meteorologist in the South African Weather Bureau (forecasting and synoptic research); Senior Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research; Research Scientist at Colorado Research Associates. Internationally recognized expert in atmospheric and oceanic processes of the Southern Hemisphere that are known to produce ENSO variability. Interests: The Southern and North Atlantic Oscillations, solar influence on the atmosphere, and climate variability.

Professor William M. Gray. Professor Gray has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 50 years. Gray received his Ph. D. from the University of Chicago under renowned hurricane researcher Herbert Riehl. He has been with the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University since 1961. He has specialized in the global aspects of tropical cyclones for his entire professional career. Current areas of research include: 1) tropical cyclone structure, movement and intensity change; 2) seasonal hurricane prediction; 3) meso-scale tropical weather systems; 4) diurnal variability of tropospheric vertical motions; 5) ENSO variability and 6) climate change research.

Dr. Gray pioneered Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts which he has been issuing for the last 25 years. He has advised over 50 successful M.S. graduates and over 20 successful Ph.D. graduates. He has received numerous awards including the Neil Frank Award from the National Hurricane Conference and the Banner I. Miller and Jule Charney Awards from the American Meteorological Society. He was also ABC TV’s “Person of the Week” in September 1995. He has been an author on over 80 published papers and over 60 extensive research reports.

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Agenda

3:00 pm - 3:10 pm
Overview and Introductions by Andy Weissman

3:10 pm - 3:40 pm
Dr. Rol Madden - Weather and Climate Prediction

3:40 pm - 4:10 pm
Harry Van Loon - Recent Changes to the El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

4:10 pm - 4:40 pm
Dr. William Gray - 2008 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast Update and Climate Change

4:40 pm - 5:10 pm
Dave Melita - Sensible Weather Implications of Recent ENSO Changes to the Remainder of 2008 and Early 2009.

5:10 pm - 5:30 pm
Andy Weissman – Energy Market Implications

5:30 pm - 6:00 pm
Questions and Answers

The Panel

Andy Weissman
Senior Managing Director, Energy Business Watch

Dave Melita
Chief Meteorologist, Energy Business Watch

Dr. Roland Madden
Senior Scientist (retired) Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Harry Van Loon
Senior Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research; Research Scientist at Colorado Research Associates.

Professor William M. Gray
Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.

About Energy Business Watch

Energy Business Watch is an energy advisory service that publishes monthly, weekly, flash and special reports on energy markets and trends. The publications' principal author is Andy Weissman, a nationally recognized authority on energy issues. Subscribers include energy producers, users, traders, and investors as well as government officials, analysts, and educators.

Energy Business Watch
1750 P Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
202.589.2391

 
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